The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results A Practical Guide
This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter v
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The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results A Practical Guide
The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results
Eduard Hofer
The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results A Practical Guide
Eduard Hofer Dorfen, Germany
ISBN 978-3-319-76296-8 ISBN 978-3-319-76297-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76297-5
(eBook)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018934848 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
Computer models are everywhere in use, and the uncritical acceptance of results from computer models is also found everywhere. The developers of computer models are generally aware of the weaknesses and limitations of their models and frequently also of the influence of various individual uncertainties on model results. However, the model users and those who have to base their decisions on model results are unfortunately often less well informed. For those who are informed, it is often impossible to adequately express this information by grey areas around the model results obtained or presented to them. Consequently, model results are frequently taken at face value and are interpreted up to a detail that would only be justified in the case of precision measurements. This may provoke embarrassing situations such as the following: Dr. A is in a conference where he is to compare two design options for a technical system with respect to their compliance with a safety limit. The audience is made up of fellow researchers, representatives of a funding organization, government departments and prospective users of the system. One of his PowerPoint slides shows the computed ev
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