The error source analysis of oil spill transport modeling: a case study
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The error source analysis of oil spill transport modeling: a case study LI Yan1,2,3 , ZHU Jiang3∗ , WANG Hui2 , KUANG Xiaodi4 1
University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China 3 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 4 Marine Environmental Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China 2
Received 15 March 2012; accepted 22 May 2012 ©The Chinese Society of Oceanography and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
Abstract Numerical modeling is an important tool to study and predict the transport of oil spills. However, the accuracy of numerical models is not always good enough to provide reliable information for oil spill transport. It is necessary to analyze and identify major error sources for the models. A case study was conducted to analyze error sources of a three-dimensional oil spill model that was used operationally for oil spill forecasting in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), the State Oceanic Administration, China. On June 4, 2011, oil from sea bed spilled into seawater in Penglai 19–3 region, the largest offshore oil field of China, and polluted an area of thousands of square kilometers in the Bohai Sea. Satellite remote sensing images were collected to locate oil slicks. By performing a series of model sensitivity experiments with different wind and current forcings and comparing the model results with the satellite images, it was identified that the major errors of the long-term simulation for oil spill transport were from the wind fields, and the wind-induced surface currents. An inverse model was developed to estimate the temporal variability of emission intensity at the oil spill source, which revealed the importance of the accuracy in oil spill source emission time function. Key words: error source, oil spill, lagrangian random walk Citation: Li Yan, Zhu Jiang, Wang Hui, Kuang Xiaodi. 2013. The error source analysis of oil spill transport modeling: a case study. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 32(10): 41-47, doi: 10.1007/s13131-013-0364-7
1 Introduction There are frequent grievous offshore oil spill accidents in the past years, such as the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the 2010 Dalian Port oil spill in China and the 2011 Penglai 19–3 oil field oil spill in the Bohai Sea of China. The concerns over the increasing contamination of water bodies and adjacent shoreline areas by oil spills are growing. The risk of oil spill accidents has increased with the developing industrial discharge, oil exploration and transport, oil storage facilities and other economic impacts. Oil spill accidents are very harmful to the ocean environment and ecosystem. They contaminate shorelines and cause long-term damages to offshore environment for fishery and wildlife. Oil spil
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