A near-fault probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yasouj, located in the Kazerun fault system, southwest Iran
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A near‑fault probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yasouj, located in the Kazerun fault system, southwest Iran Seyed Nasrollah Eftekhari1 · Hadi Sayyadpour1 · Milad Kowsari2,3 Received: 4 May 2020 / Accepted: 16 October 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The Kazerun fault system (KFS) is located in the central part of the Zagros, the most seismically active orogenic belt in the Iranian plateau. The city of Yasouj is located in the midst of the KFS and thus exposed to high earthquake hazard. In this study, we conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which includes near-fault effects. For this purpose, different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are ranked using the deviance information criterion (DIC) data-driven method against a dataset of the regional recorded strong motions. Then, the most appropriate GMPEs are selected for use in a logic tree framework to consider the epistemic uncertainty. In addition, the shear wave velocity is estimated using experimental data and the local site conditions are evaluated for different parts of the city. In addition, the seismicity parameters are obtained using the maximum likelihood methodology considering the magnitude uncertainty. The results show large variations in the spectral accelerations among different locations at short oscillator periods, while no significant difference is observed at longer periods. Moreover, due to the local site conditions, the highest ground motions are expected in the northeastern part of the Yasouj city. Comparing the results of this study with the Iranian seismic code design spectra shows that the design spectra of the Iranian seismic code are underestimating the ground motions at short spectral periods. The results of this study can be useful for both engineers and decision-makers to reduce earthquake risk for the region under study. Keywords Near fault · Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis · Kazerun fault system · Zagros
* Hadi Sayyadpour [email protected] 1
Faculty of Technology and Mining, Yasouj University, Choram 75761‑59836, Iran
2
Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland
3
Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Selfoss, Iceland
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction The Zagros seismic belt is the most seismically active orogenic belt of the Iranian plateau (e.g., Falcon 1974) and one of the most rapidly deforming belts in the world (Nissen et al. 2011). There have been many destructive earthquakes in the Zagros seismic belt during the last century such as Silakhor earthquake of Mw 7.3 in 1909 and Ezgeleh earthquake of Mw 7.3 in 2017. The occurrence of such large earthquakes all over the Zagros seismic belt is likely (Yazdani and Kowsari 2013), especially in the central part where the seismicity is strongly controlled by the activity of the Kazerun fault system (KFS) (Kalaneh and AghAtabai 2016; Khodaverdian et al. 2016). This active fault system plays a key kinematic role in
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