Slaughter cattle to secure food calories and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions? Some prospective estimates fo
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Slaughter cattle to secure food calories and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions? Some prospective estimates for France ´ Pierre-Alain Jayet1 · Ancuta Isbasoiu1 · Stephane De Cara1 Received: 13 November 2019 / Accepted: 11 June 2020 / © INRAE and Springer-Verlag France SAS, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract We assess the potential for increasing the net amount of food calories produced by French agriculture and the possible implications in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural area allocation. This analysis is based on an agricultural supply model for the European Union mainly with regard to arable crops, meadows, fodder crops, and the main animal products. The model calculates the variations in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions associated with the required level of production. Within the framework of a prospective approach carried out under the technical and economic conditions of the period 2007–2012, we calculate the extent of the changes in an agricultural production system, to which we assign the objective of increasing the net production of calories. In France, for an increase of 40 to 60% depending on the year, three-quarters of meadows would disappear, a large proportion of temporary meadows would switch to cereals, and fallows could exceed 20% of the total agricultural area. These changes would result from the sharp fall in livestock, especially of cattle for meat. The key factor in the analysis is animal feed, which, in addition to the decrease in grass consumption, would lead to a slight increase in fodder and cereals produced and consumed on the farm, and a sharp decrease of around 50% in the purchase of concentrated feeds. The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is substantial, at least in terms of methane, and could exceed 30% of reference emissions in carbon dioxide equivalent. Keywords Food calories · Agricultural production · Livestock and feed · Greenhouse gas emissions · Mathematical programming model
Pierre-Alain Jayet
[email protected] 1
Universit´e Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Economie Publique, Avenue Lucien Br´etigni`eres, Grignon 78850, France
P.-A. Jayet et al.
Introduction The trade-offs implied by growing food demand and the need to preserve the environment are central to the problem we propose studying. In view of the multifaceted nature of the problem, we restrict our analysis to the agricultural and animal production sector and to greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural production is under pressure from evolving demand, to the detriment of meat products, at least in the European Union for a segment of the population. Changes in the eating habits of certain consumers contribute to modifying the entire food production chain and, ultimately, affect the demand for agricultural products. The entire agricultural production system is therefore faced with contrasting changes in terms of plant and animal production. At the same time, the supply of food calories needs to keep pace with rising global demand, driven by the increasing global
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