Estimation and Prediction of Typhoons and Wave Overtopping in Qingdao, China
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Estimation and Prediction of Typhoons and Wave Overtopping in Qingdao, China WANG Zhifeng1), *, LI Songtao1), HAO Yan2), MA Yan2), and WU Kejian3) 1) Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China 2) Qingdao Meteorological Bureau, Qingdao 266003, China 3) College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China (Received November 4, 2019; revised January 6, 2020; accepted May 8, 2020) © Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2020 Abstract This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. Typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35% – 0.75% in 2025, 0.69% – 1.5% in 2035, and 1.38% – 3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0 – 2 m and 0 – 60 m3 km−1 s−1, respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. Key words
climate change; typhoon wind; typhoon wave; wave overtopping; Qingdao
1 Introduction In coastal engineering, typhoons and wave overtopping on dikes are important issues (Dong et al., 2017; Ji and Dong, 2018). The parameters of typhoons and wave overtopping are key to coastal protection and dike research. Many studies have explored the overtopping volume distribution of single waves under a positive freeboard (Xiao et al., 2009; Victor et al., 2012; Nørgaard et al., 2014; Dahmani et al., 2017). For example, Wang et al. (2016) and Lin et al. (2019) recently analyzed the typhoon and wave characteristics near Qingdao. The combination of extreme waves and storm surges can lead to the overtopping of coastal protection structures, such as dikes, seawalls, and breakwaters. This condition may cause flooding and damage the areas protected by these structures. Wave overtopping is safer under a positive freeboard than under a negative freeboard during storm surges. The flood-side slopes of levees have been found to be exposed to lower velocities
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